Technology Roadmap for Petroleum Analysis

This technology roadmap outlines the forecasting of petroleum supply and demand trends, comprising three main stages: problem definition, the forecasting process, and strategic recommendations. The problem definition stage establishes the bidirectional linkage between production and demand forecasts. The core forecasting process employs a parallel approach using the Generalized Weng Model and the Hubbert Model; both models fit historical data through multi-cycle designs—determining the optimal number of cycles via F-tests—and utilize the nonlinear GRG algorithm for processing. Finally, based on error validation, analyses of external dependency and supply-demand gaps are conducted to derive strategic recommendations regarding the overall petroleum supply and demand landscape.